[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 15/2132UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 172/126

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            185/138            185/138
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. 
The region 30 produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008 UT, associated 
with a 1900 sfu Tenflare, a type IV radio aweep. Regions 30 and 
36 is still has potential to produce another event during the 
period. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 1123
      Darwin               8   2323 122-
      Townsville           7   2223 112-
      Learmonth            8   2223 2133
      Canberra             6   1223 112-
      Hobart               5   1222 112-
      Casey(Ant)           8   2322 2132
      Davis(Ant)          10   1332 23-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2211 2342     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul    30    Active to Minor storm 
18 Jul    20    active 
19 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 15 July and 
is current for interval 16-18 July. Magnetic field will be at 
unsettled to active levels because of the recurrent coronal hole 
effects on 16 July 2002. It will increases to active to minor 
storm levels on 17 July 2002 because of CME, associated with 
X3/3b flare happened at 20:08 UT, 15 July 2002. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 07 2002 1810UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
18 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be degraded 
on 17 July 2002 at middle and high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
16 Jul    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul   100    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul   103    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    19700 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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