[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 02

Thu Jul 18 09:57:07 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN    ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M8/1B    0713UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 180/133

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jul             19 Jul             20 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            190/143            185/138
COMMENT: Solar regions 30 and 36 have the chance of producing 
a major flare. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1524UT on 
17 Jul. 
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 17 is due for return to 
the south-east limb around 19 Jul. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 17 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   2333 2533
      Darwin              15   1233 253-
      Townsville          16   2332 253-
      Learmonth           14   2232 2522
      Canberra            13   1232 252-
      Hobart               9   1232 142-
      Casey(Ant)          18   2333 3534
      Davis(Ant)          33   -454 35--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   2322 2244     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
19 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled 
20 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 15 July and 
is current for interval 16-18 July. The shock observed in the 
solar wind was the CME associated with the X3-flare observed 
on 15 July. As this CME was only partially earthward directed, 
activity was only mildly elevated. A well defined full halo CME 
observed at around 16UT on the 16 July appears to have originated 
from the backside of the sun and therefore is not expected to 
be geoeffective. A futher CME associated with the M8-flare on 
17 July appears to be mostly directed to the north-east and again, 
is not exepcted to be geoeffective. 
A weak (32nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1604UT on 17 Jul. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 07 2002 1810UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: PCA event in progress and HF conditions are expected 
to be degraded at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
17 Jul   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jul   100    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul   105    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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