[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X3/3B    2008UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 160/114

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            170/124
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. 
The region 30 produced an X3/3b flare at 15/2008 UT, associated 
with a 1900 sfu Tenflare, a type IV radio aweep. Region 30 is 
still has potential to produce another event during the period. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1121 1111
      Darwin               4   2121 1212
      Townsville           4   1121 1212
      Learmonth            2   1121 0002
      Canberra             2   1011 1101
      Hobart               1   0020 0001
      Casey(Ant)           2   1120 1000
      Davis(Ant)           5   2122 112-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              6   2211 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul    12    Unsettled 
17 Jul    20    active 
18 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field will be at unsettled to active levels 
because of the recurrent coronal hole effects on 16 July 2002. 
It will increases to active to minor storm levels on 17 July 
2002 because of the coronal hole and X3/3b flare happened at 
20:08 UT, 15 July 2002. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be degraded 
on 17 July 2002 at middle and high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
15 Jul    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 50% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    95    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
17 Jul   100    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    53100 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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