[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 144/98

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. 
The region 30 remains possible to produce isolated flare. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 0011
      Darwin               3   1211 1112
      Townsville           1   0111 0012
      Learmonth            0   0101 0001
      Canberra             0   0100 0001
      Hobart               0   1100 0000
      Casey(Ant)           4   1221 1110
      Davis(Ant)           7   2223 1121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            68   (Active)
      Hobart              57   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3322 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
14 Jul    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul    90    about 15% below predicted monthly values 
16 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    97500 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060