[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F    2031UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Six C-class flares were observed on 2July 2002 by 2330UT:
C1.1 at 0942UT, C1.8 at 1230UT, C2.3 at 1417, C1.0 at 1817UT,
C1.0 at 1836 and C5.2 at 2001. One M1.4 flare from region 0017
(S18W51) peaked at 2029UT. Region 0017 has shown significant
growth over the last 24 hours.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 149/104

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jul             04 Jul             05 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2220 1012
      Darwin               5   2321 1112
      Townsville           1   2110 0003
      Learmonth            3   2220 0012
      Canberra             1   2110 0002
      Hobart               1   1110 0000
      Casey(Ant)           6   2330 1011
      Davis(Ant)           8   3331 2023
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   3424 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jul    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
04 Jul     8    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods pssible.
05 Jul     8    Mostly quiet.     
COMMENT: The solar wind speed has slowed down from 460km/s 
to 390km/s (approximately) over the last 24 hours and Bz 
remained predominantly northwards. No other significant 
activity has been noticed that could affect the geo-magnetic 
activity. The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled level during the next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
02 Jul   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of enhancements upto 25% and
      depressions upto 35% (approx.).


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jul   105    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul   107    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul   107    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:   4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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