[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/1B    0213UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
 M5/--    2010UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 173/127

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jul             05 Jul             06 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            150/105            145/99



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2111 2222
      Darwin               5   3111 2122
      Townsville           5   3011 2123
      Learmonth            4   1101 2222
      Canberra             4   2001 2220
      Hobart               4   2101 2220
      Casey(Ant)           5   2221 2121
      Davis(Ant)           5   1222 12-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   3321 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: The X1-flare observed at 0214T on 3 July does not appear 
to have an associated CME from the LASCO imagery and is therefore 
not expected to be geoeffective. The M4-flare observed at 2014UT 
on the 3 July had an associated CME, however, it does not appear 
to be earthward directed. Hence, geomagnetic activity is expected 
to remain mostly quiet to unsettled over the next few days. There 
is the chance of possible active periods from a glancing blow 
of the M4-flare CME. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jul      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: SWF's possible over the next couple of days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
03 Jul   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      otherwise enhanced greater than 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced greater than 20%.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
05 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: SWF's possible over the next couple of days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    72600 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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