[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 147/101

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jul             03 Jul             04 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2323 3222
      Darwin              10   2323 3223
      Townsville          10   2323 3222
      Learmonth            9   2323 3121
      Canberra            12   2323 4222
      Hobart              11   2313 4212
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2222
      Davis(Ant)          16   3434 22-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16   2334 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
01 Jul   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 100

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jul   105    near predicted monthly values 
03 Jul   105    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jul   100    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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