[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF 14/2246UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 218/168

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            215/165            220/170
COMMENT: M1 flare was from solar region 9775 (S06W69). 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3232 2212
      Darwin               5   2122 1213
      Learmonth            5   2122 2211
      Canberra             7   2232 2212
      Hobart               7   2231 2212
      Casey(Ant)          15   4-4- 321-
      Davis(Ant)          15   3--- -333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JAN : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3212 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan    12    Unsettled 
17 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. An 
apparent weak recurrent pattern may increase activity on 17 Jan, 
along with a possible very outside chance for CME induced activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 15 01 2002 1450UT and 
	    is in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-Fair          
17 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Elevated proton flux expected to cause increased absorption 
on 16 Jan, at polar regions. HF conditions at low to mid latitudes 
expected to be normal. Mild degradation possible 17 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
15 Jan   166

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Jan   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs expected for today. Mild degradation possible 
local night hours 16-17 Jan. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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