[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1013UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 216/166

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            220/170            220/170
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2211 2212
      Darwin               5   2211 2213
      Learmonth            5   2221 2212
      Canberra             4   2200 2203
      Hobart               3   2211 1103
      Casey(Ant)          11   4--2 3122
      Davis(Ant)          11   23-3 3221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JAN : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1222 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan     6    Quiet 
18 Jan     6    Quiet 
19 Jan     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : Began at 1450UT 15/01, Ended at 1015UT 16/01

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
16 Jan   186

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 75% during local night.
     Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Jan   160    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Jan   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 430 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    83600 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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