[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan: 232/182

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            230/180            230/180
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9739 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 3 Jan. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3342 2233
      Darwin               9   3232 1234
      Learmonth            9   3232 1232
      Canberra             9   2342 1123
      Hobart               9   2342 1123
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--- 3233
      Davis(Ant)          19   34-4 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             11   3322 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Jan     5    Quiet 
04 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 30 12 2001 2125UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
01 Jan   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 Jan   130    near predicted monthly values 
04 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 533 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   189000 K  Bz:   6 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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