[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 December 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z DECEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 246/196

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   245/195            240/189            240/189
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be moderate. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   4321 2344
      Darwin              12   4322 1335
      Learmonth           13   4321 1344
      Canberra            13   4321 1344
      Hobart              14   4321 2343
      Casey(Ant)          26   5--- 3344
      Davis(Ant)          35   554- -445
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 DEC : 
      Darwin              14   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              71   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17   3442 3244     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
02 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Magnetic activity is expected to be unsettled to active. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Fair           Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 30 12 2001 2125UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
31 Dec   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for December: 112

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan   130    near predicted monthly values 
02 Jan   138    near predicted monthly values 
03 Jan   130    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 87 was issued on 29 December 
and is current for interval 30 December to 1 January (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:  12 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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