[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    1252UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    2149UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 231/181

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            230/180            225/175
COMMENT: Realtively large region in south-east quadrant of solar 
disk remains flare capable but has yet to produce an M class 
event. Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9739 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 3 Jan. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3212 3333
      Darwin               7   2212 2323
      Learmonth            8   3122 2322
      Canberra             7   2212 2323
      Hobart               7   2112 2322
      Casey(Ant)          15   33-- 3332
      Davis(Ant)          23   43-4 4343
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2222 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan     5    Quiet 
04 Jan     5    Quiet 
05 Jan     3    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 30 12 2001 2125UT and 
is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Polar HF circuits currently affected by proton event 
which is slowly declining. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
02 Jan   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 Jan   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 Jan   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    70000 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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