[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1132UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 203/154

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            195/147



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   4444 3334
      Darwin              18   4343 3335
      Learmonth           21   5343 3333
      Canberra            18   3443 3334
      Hobart              19   4444 3224
      Casey(Ant)          24   --54 32--
      Davis(Ant)          39   45-5 54-4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 FEB : 
      Darwin              44   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           12   (Quiet)
      Canberra           102   (Major storm)
      Hobart             137   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16   4322 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 4 February and 
is current for interval 6-7 February. The Earth is presently 
under the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream which 
is expected to result in active to minor storm periods for Feb 
6-7. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are expected for 6-7 
Feb in association with mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
06 Feb   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb   130    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 6 February 
and is current for interval 6-7 February. Slightly degraded HF 
conditions are expected for 6-7 Feb in association with mildly 
elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:   15.0 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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