[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 192/144

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with 
a chance of an isolated M-class event today. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3323 3223
      Darwin               8   3322 2213
      Learmonth            9   3222 3224
      Canberra            10   2323 3222
      Hobart              12   3333 3123
      Casey(Ant)          21   4--3 ----
      Davis(Ant)          15   33-4 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 FEB : 
      Darwin              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra           105   (Major storm)
      Hobart              87   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   3344 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
07 Feb   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 619 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   219000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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