[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.3/SF 04/2330UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 221/171

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            225/175            220/170



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 05 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   4334 3344
      Darwin              17   4323 3344
      Learmonth           19   4233 3445
      Canberra            16   4223 3344
      Hobart              16   4223 3344
      Casey(Ant)          24   5444 3334
      Davis(Ant)          27   3345 4353
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 FEB : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   1100 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb    18    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
07 Feb    18    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
08 Feb    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 4 February and 
is current for interval 6-7 February. The Earth is presently 
under the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream which 
is expected to result in active to minor storm periods for Feb 
6-7. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are expected for 6-7 
Feb in association with mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
05 Feb   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed approximately 15% at times since local
      dawn, otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 20%.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb   115    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb   125    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb   145    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are expected for 6-7 
Feb in association with mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 338 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    63000 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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