[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    0602UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M1/--    0658UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 235/185

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            225/175            215/165



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2311 2223
      Darwin               4   1211 1123
      Learmonth            3   1210 1123
      Canberra             3   1210 1123
      Hobart               3   1210 1123
      Casey(Ant)          13   34-3 230-
      Davis(Ant)          11   3332 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 FEB : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1202 2220     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb    10    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Feb    18    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
07 Feb    18    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 4 February and 
is current for interval 6-7 February. Active to minor storm periods 
are possible for 6-7 Feb due to a recurrent coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions may be possible for 6-7 
Feb in association with anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
04 Feb   163

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Feb   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
07 Feb   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions may be possible for 6-7 
Feb in association with anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    78800 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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