[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 233/183

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            230/180            225/175



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3322 2202
      Darwin               5   2212 2201
      Learmonth            7   3222 2202
      Canberra             6   2222 2202
      Hobart               6   2222 2202
      Casey(Ant)          11   34-2 21--
      Davis(Ant)          12   3333 3211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 FEB : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            66   (Active)
      Hobart              79   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18   3354 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb     8    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Feb     6    Quiet 
06 Feb    18    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: Active to minor storm periods are possible for 6 Feb 
due to a recurrent coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions may be possible for 6 Feb 
in association with anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
03 Feb   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 Feb   145    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Feb   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded conditions may be possible for 6 Feb 
in association with anticipated mildly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    51100 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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