[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 20 10:38:36 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 2150UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 193/145
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 195/147 185/138
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 350 to 550km/sec as
the Earth entered the expected coronal hole high speed wind stream.
The magnetic field of this wind stream apears to have a southward
oriented north-south component with Bz southward 10nT 07-19UT,
and is now currently mildly northward. An M2.8 solar flare
(slow decline) was observed at 2153UT on 19 Dec, with associated
Type II and IV radio signatures observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph,
implying a coronal mass ejection has occurred. The Type II seemed to
be a multiple event, with a best estimate speed of around 800km/sec.
The associated flare in Culgoora H-alpha imagery (N17W11) appeared
"TT" shaped in regions 225/223 the stems nearest 225 forming a
discernable parallel ribbon. A proton event may occurr in the
next 24 hours. The location of just west of the solar central
meridian is a highly geoeffective location. Event data suggests a
shock arrival 06-18UT on 22 Dec. LASCO imagery will be monitored
to confirm suspected halo mass ejection. Further M class
flares remain expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 29 3545 4434
Darwin 29 3545 4434
Townsville 34 4545 5434
Learmonth 37 3555 4454
Canberra 29 3545 4434
Hobart 29 3545 4434
Casey(Ant) 64 -7-4 4---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 DEC :
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 6 2201 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 18 active
21 Dec 13 Unsettled to Active
22 Dec 50 Major storm
COMMENT: Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity observed over
past 24 hours. Further actviity expected today (chance isolated
minor storm periods) then declining. Major storm levels forecast
for 22 Dec due to M2.8/Type II+IV (implied mass ejection) at
2153 19 Dec and forecast is subject to mass ejection confirmation
by LASCO instrument when imagery becomes available.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Dec Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed at mid to high latitudes
overnight. Further degradation expected today then improving.
A stronger degradation is likely on 22 Dec due to recent likley
mass ejection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 153
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 80 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Dec 80 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
22 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated shortwave fadeout activity expected. Depressed
MUFs expected southern region after local dawn today and possily
next day. A mass ejection is likely to have occurred on the Sun
with the M2.7 flare. This is expected on 22 Dec. As such
depressed/degraded conditions are likely 23 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 9.3 p/cc Temp: 20500 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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