[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 21 09:14:56 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M6.8/SF    1318UT  probable   lower  European
M2.8/2N 19/2153UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 197/149


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Dec             22 Dec             23 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            195/147            185/138
COMMENT: A proton enehancement was observed following the M2.8 
flare/CME late yesterday. 10MeV proton flux peaked at 4 proton 
flux units around 0215UT. An Earth directed mass ejection confirmed 
in LASCO C3 imagery. Todays M6.8 flare has a relatively impulsive xray 
profile, and was from solar region 226. This flare was reported 
with a Type II signature. A shock arrival window based on speed 
and location is 06-16UT on 23 Dec. As this event had an impulsive 
profile effects are expected to be less than earlier M2.8 event 
from region 223/225. Solar wind speed was at around 540km/sec 
for much of the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated southward, and is currently around 
12nT south, a condition that increases the geoeffectiveness of 
the solar wind. Further M class flares remain expected. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3322 3232
      Darwin              10   3222 3233
      Townsville           9   2222 3232
      Learmonth           15   33-- ----
      Canberra            10   3322 2233
      Hobart              16   -322 235-
      Casey(Ant)          21   4-43 4331
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             21   3345 4442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Dec    18    Unsettled to Active 
22 Dec    50    Minor storm, major storm periods possible local night. 
23 Dec    25    Active to minor storm. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 20 December 
and is current for interval 21-22 December. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity observed over past 24 hours. Further actviity 
expected first half of today particular if southward interplanetary 
magnetic field persists. Minor storm (Major storm periods) expected 
22 Dec due to recent mass ejection associated with M2.7 flare. 
Activity could be extended to 23rd due to M6.8 event, effects 
expected to be less due to relatively impulsive nature of flare. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal         Fair           Fair          
22 Dec      Normal         Fair-poor      Fair-poor     
23 Dec      Normal         Poor-fair      Poor-fair     
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed at mid to high latitudes 
overnight. Further degradation expected today then improving. 
A stronger degradation is likely on 22-23 Dec due to recent mass 
ejection activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Dec    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Dec    80    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Dec    50    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated shortwave fadeout activity expected. Depressed 
MUFs expected southern region after local dawn today. Depressed/degraded 
conditions are likely late 22-23 Dec following anticipated coronal 
mass ejection geomagnetic activity.. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    8.8 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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