[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M2.4/1N    0642UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
M1.6/SF 17/2335UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 197/149


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Dec             20 Dec             21 Dec
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            195/147            195/147
COMMENT: A small discontinuity in solar wind speed was observed 
around 1240UT, with solar wind jumping from 360 to 390km/sec. 
However, the expected trend of gradually increasing solar wind 
speed due to a coronal hole has yet to eventuate. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) has remained 
predominately northward over the UT day, a state the reduces 
geoeffectiveness of the solar wind. The solar radio noise storm 
which was oberved yesterday on the Culgoora Spectrograph appears 
to have stopped. Solar region 226 near the centre of the solar 
disk has good flare potential, along with regions in north-east 
quadrant. M class flares expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 2123
      Darwin               7   3222 2123
      Townsville           7   3222 2213
      Learmonth            5   2221 2112
      Canberra             5   2221 2122
      Hobart               4   1221 1122
      Casey(Ant)          13   -433 2133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6   2212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Dec    25    Active chance for minor storm periods. 
20 Dec    18    Unsettled to active 
21 Dec    13    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 18-19 December. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic forecast slipped by 1 day as increased solar wind 
speed has yet to eventaute. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
20 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
21 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Expected degradation in HF conditions yet to eventaute. 
Degraded conditions expected mid to high latitudes now expected 
late 19-20 Dec due to coronal hole induced activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Dec   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Dec   160    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
20 Dec    80    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Dec    80    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for interval 18-19 December. Isolated shortwave 
fadeout activity expected. The anticpated coronal hole high speed 
wind stream has yet to eventuate. As such depressed MUF forecast 
has been slipped out by one day. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    51400 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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