[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 December 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 18 10:23:59 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 16/2337UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 213/164
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 205/156 195/147
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued to decline and is now at
400km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) has remained northward over the UT day, a state the
reduces geoeffectiveness of the solar wind. A noise storm has
been observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph since dawn this morning.
Solar region 226 south/centre of solar disk has good flare potential,
along with region 225 in north-east quadrant. M class flares
exzpected. Solar wind speed is expected to increase over next
24 hours due to a solar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 2211 1113
Darwin 6 3221 1123
Townsville 4 2211 1113
Learmonth 3 3110 0113
Canberra 3 2111 1113
Hobart 4 2211 1112
Casey(Ant) 7 ---- 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 8 2222 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 18 Initially quiet to unsettled then active towards
end of UT day.
19 Dec 25 Active chance for minor storm periods.
20 Dec 13 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 18-19 December. A coronal hole is
expected to cause active to minor storm conditions late 18-19
Dec. Bz is currently northward, if this orientation does not
change when the Earth enters the expected coronal hole high speed
wind stream geomagnetic effects will be reduced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
19 Dec Normal Fair Poor-fair
20 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected mid to high latitudes late
18-19 Dec due to coronal hole induced activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 156
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec 155 Initially enahnced 10-20% then depressed 15%
late in UT day.
19 Dec 80 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 15 December
and is current for interval 18-19 December. Isolated shortwave
fadeout activity expected. The Earth has yet to entre coronal
hole wind stream so conditions expected to be initially good
today. Degraded conditions expected around late 18 Dec and 19
Dec due to anticapated coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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