[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 18 09:24:45 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4/SF 2051UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 227/177
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 230/180 235/185 235/185
COMMENT: Large solar region 69 is now just west of the centre
of the solar disk. This region produced the M3.8 event, which
was impulsive and did not appear to be associated with a mass
ejection. This region still has very good flare potential (Big
Bear Observatory Bear Alert Service reported that the region
is still magnetically complex at multiple sites within the region).
Solar wind speed declined from 550 to 450 km/sec over the UT
day, as coronal hole effects subside. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward (5nT)
over the UT day. ACE EPAM precursor data channel suggests shock
arrival is still to be expected first half of UT day today,
possibly more towards the end of the 02-10UT 18 Aug
anticipated arrival window.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
17/2115UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 39 is due for return to
the south-east limb around 18 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 1332 2122
Townsville 7 1332 1123
Learmonth 8 1330 ----
Canberra 9 1342 2122
Hobart 7 1232 2121
Casey(Ant) 9 2431 1122
Davis(Ant) 16 2343 3242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 17 4353 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 60 Initially unsettled , impulse expected first
half UT day, then major storm.
19 Aug 18 active
20 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 16 August and
is current for interval 18-19 August. Major storm levels expected
early 18 Aug due to M5 flare/CME on 16 Aug. Chance periods of
severe storm local night 18 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-Poor Normal-Poor Poor
19 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Strongly degrdaded HF conditions probable at mid to
high latitudes on 18 Aug due to recent M5/CME event. Proton flux
is currently elevated at 3PFU's and slowly declining. Frequent
fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 152
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Some spread and absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 120 Initially enhanced 15%, then depressed 15-20%.
19 Aug 85 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 125 near normal to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 16 August
and is current for interval 18-19 August. Strongly degraded conditions
expected local night hours 18 Aug, southern Aus/NZ region. Fadeouts
can be expected on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 585 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 329000 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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