[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 19 09:15:50 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 1005UT possible lower European
M2.1 1439UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.4 2126UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 241/190
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 245/195 245/195 230/180
COMMENT: A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1809UT
on 18 Aug. Shock arrived later than expected. Solar wind speed
increased from 450 to nearly 600 km/sec. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) only fluctuated southward
10nT post shock. Large solar region 69 produced the M2 events.
The event at 2126UT was associated with a Type II radio-sweep
(1000km/sec), observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph and Culgoora
H-Alpha imagery showed that the flare was located in the southern
portion of this large and magnetically complex region. A mass
ejection is inferred from these data, however no Lasco imagery
was available to confirm. Shock arrival window for this event
is 03-14UT 21 Aug. Further M and X class flares expected. Region
69 is now about 14 degrees west of the centre of the solar disk,
and is in a good geoeffective location if further mass ejection
events eventuate. Solar region 79 located in the south-east quadrant
of the solar disk is showing growth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 14 2312 3254
Townsville 9 2212 2244
Learmonth 7 -311 ----
Canberra 8 2201 2244
Hobart 9 2211 3144
Casey(Ant) 16 3322 3254
Davis(Ant) 25 33-3 3364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 2343 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 18 Active, chance of minor storm periods local midnight.
20 Aug 12 Unsettled to active
21 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 16 August and
is current for interval 18-19 August. Storm activity was over-forecast.
Storm activity now not expected, as Bz did not swing far southward
post shock arrrival. There is a chance for isolated minor storm
periods around local midnight tonight. A possible period of weak
CME (assumed) induced activity is possible on 21 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Moderate degradation expected today and on day 3 of
forecast period. Proton flux remains elevated but below event
threshold, possibly increasing absorption on polar HF links.
Further fadeouts can be expected on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 148
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25-45% during local day,
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Some spread and absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 140 about 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Aug 140 about 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Aug 140 about 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Strong degradation did not eventuate post CME shock
arrival. Moderate degradation possible local night hours
day 1 and 3 of forecast period. Fadeouts can be expected
on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 87200 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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