[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 17 08:52:29 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 15/2333UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.6 0612UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M5.3 1235UT possible lower European
M1.3 2212UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 214/165
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 215/165 220/170 225/175
COMMENT: Large solar region 69 (S14E20) produced the M5.2 flare
(slow decline, long duration) at 1232UT. A proton enhancement
followed the flare. This event was associated with a Type II
radio sweep, and Lasco reported a fast bright full halo front
side mass ejection. Event data suggests a shock arrival window
0200-1000UT 18 Aug. This regions location, just east of the centre
of the solar disk and event parameters suggest signifcant activity
can be expected from this flare. A smaller fainter mass ejection
was observed off the west limb at the start of the UT day, any
effects from this mild event will probably be overtaken by the
fast CME from the M5 flare. Yesterdays small discontinuity appears
to have been the signature from the recent M1.8/CME event. Solar
wind speed was moderately elevated over the UT day , 600km/sec,
and the north south comoponent of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mildly (5nT) southward for much of the UT day.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 39 is due for return to
the south-east limb around 18 Aug. Also, previously M-flare(s)
producing region 44 is also due for return to the south-east
limb around this day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 15 3343 3313
Townsville 13 2342 3323
Learmonth 8 3232 2202
Canberra 13 2343 3313
Hobart 15 2353 3212
Casey(Ant) 15 3442 2322
Davis(Ant) 15 34-3 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 AUG :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 3334 3455
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Aug 60 Major storm
19 Aug 18 Initially active , then declining to unsettled
levels.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 16 August and
is current for interval 18-19 August. Major storm levels expected
early 18 Aug due to M5 flare/CME on 16 Aug. Chance periods of
severe storm local night 18 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event, however proton enhancement in progress..
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Aug Normal-Poor Poor Poor
19 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Strongly degrdaded HF conditions probable at mid to
high latitudes on 18 Aug due to recent M5/CME event. Proton flux
is currently elevated (trending up) but below event thresholds
following the M5 flare. Increased absorption is likely on polar
HF circuits as day progresses. Strong MUF depressions are likely
18/19 Aug for northern hemisphere. Frequent fadeouts can be expected
on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Some absorption observed late in UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 120 about 5% above predicted monthly values
18 Aug 100 Initially enhanced 5%, then depressed 15-20%.
19 Aug 85 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 15 August
and is current for interval 16-18 August (SWFs) . Strongly degraded
conditions expected local night hours 18 Aug, southern Aus/NZ
region. MUF depression for southern hemisphere not expected to
be severe due to seasonal factors (winter). Fadeouts can be expected
on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 295000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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