[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/-- 15/2324UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M2/SF    1319UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 196/148

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            180/133
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly southward 5nT 00-05UT and 20-23UT. Solar wind 
speed was around 350km/sec across the UT day. ACE EPAM precursor 
data shows a gradual trend upwards, suggesting a shock arrival 
is probable on 17 Apr, possibly more towards the second half 
of the UT day. Solar region 9906 in south-west quadrant of solar 
disk remains flare capable. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2231 0023
      Townsville           3   1121 1023
      Learmonth            3   2120 1022
      Canberra             2   1120 0023
      Hobart               2   1120 0022
      Casey(Ant)           8   3331 01--
      Davis(Ant)           9   2242 013-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7   2112 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
18 Apr    18    active 
19 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Field is expected to reach active to minor storm levels 
on 17 Apr due to recent CME. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
18 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair     
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Good HF conditions initially expected today, becoming 
degraded as day progresses due to anticipated arrival of CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
16 Apr   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr   140    initially enhanced 10-15%/depressed 10-15% 
18 Apr   100    depressed 10-15% to near normal. 
19 Apr   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions initially expected for today. Conditions 
are then expected to become degraded due to anticipated arrival 
of recent mass ejection. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    49900 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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