[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/SF    0014UT  confirmed  lower  West Pacific
 M1/SF    0355UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/--    2326UT  possible   lower  West Pacfic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 203/154

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Apr             17 Apr             18 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            190/143            185/138
COMMENT: Faint full halo mass ejection observed in LASCO C3 imagery 
in association with long duration M1 flare. A shock is expected 
to arrive at the earth on 17 April. The solar region that produce 
this mass ejection was just west of the centre the solar disk, 
a good geoeffective location. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward (5nT) between 
12-18UT. Further M class events are expected today. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   3220 1222
      Townsville           5   3110 1222
      Learmonth            4   2210 1222
      Canberra             6   3110 2222
      Hobart               4   2110 2121
      Casey(Ant)           7   3331 110-
      Davis(Ant)           4   2221 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   3322 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Apr     7    Quiet 
17 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm 
18 Apr    18    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet today. 
Minor storm periods local night hours are expected on 17 Apr due 
to halo CME. Anticapted effect of mass ejection expected to be 
reduced due to apparent faintness, despite good location of
solar region of origin.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event. Chance of minor enhancement next 24 hours.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
18 Apr      Normal         Fair-Normal    Poor-fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected today. Degraded conditions 
expected on 17-18 Apr due to recent CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
15 Apr   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Apr   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Apr   140    initially enhanced 10-15%/depressed 10-15% 
18 Apr   100    depressed 10-15% to near normal. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 14 April 
and is current for interval 14-16 April (SWFs) . Mild degradation 
observed local night hours. Mild depression may be experienced 
southern Aus/NZ region. Shortwave fadeouts can be again expected
today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:   11.2 p/cc  Temp:    49400 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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