[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 18 09:48:10 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/2N 0824UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 194/146
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 185/138 180/133
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 1020UT on 17
Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 27 2225 5544
Townsville 29 2226 4544
Learmonth 30 2225 5554
Canberra 31 1226 4553
Hobart 26 1225 5543
Casey(Ant) 19 2334 443-
Davis(Ant) 26 3235 5444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 APR :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 55
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10 2331 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 30 Active to minor storm
19 Apr 35 Active to minor storm
20 Apr 25 Mostly active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 17 April and
is current for interval 17-18 April. The geomagnetic activity
reached upto major storm level on 17 April. A shock was observed
at 1022 UT at ACE space craft. This is associated with the 'halo'
CME observed on 15 April. Another 'holo' CME observed on 17April/0824UT
is expected to affect the geomagnetic activity on 19 and 20 April.
The geomagnective activity may rise up to minor storm level on
19 April. A greater than 10MeV proton event,associated with the
CME observed on 17 April, is currently in progress.
A moderate (63nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter
data at 1107UT on 17 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 17 04 2002 1530UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
19 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Because of the geomagnetic storm observed on 17 April
and geomagnetic activity level being expected to remain from
active to minor storm level on 18 and 19 April, the HF conditions
are expected to be slightly degraded on the high and mid latitude
locations. The >10MeV proton event, that started at 1530UT(17April)
is expected to degrade HF conditions in the polar regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
17 Apr 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 120 near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 120 near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 140 upto 10% above the predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 17 April
and is current for interval 17-18 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 60100 K Bz: 1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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