[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 193/145

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Oct             17 Oct             18 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            200/152            200/152

COMMENT: Solar activity may increase around 16 Oct due to the 
possible return of two previously flaring regions (9628,9632) 
to the south east limb. Some emision is visible on the south-east 
limb in Yokoh soft xray imagery. A region (9661) in the north-east 
quadrant of the solar disk shows steady growth. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   4423 1213
      Darwin              11   4323 121-
      Learmonth           14   5323 1213
      Canberra            10   3423 1113
      Hobart              12   3422 2---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   1232 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Oct     5    Quiet 
18 Oct     5    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Oct   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Oct   145    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 Oct   145    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
18 Oct   145    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   101000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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