[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 207/158

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            220/170

COMMENT: Some emision remains visible on the south-east limb 
in Yokoh soft xray imagery. A region (9661) just in the north-east 
quadrant, now approaching disk centre remains flare capable. 
Background xray flux levels show an increasing trend over past 
24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3232 3223
      Darwin              11   3322 3323
      Learmonth           10   3232 3223
      Canberra             8   2132 3222
      Hobart              11   3332 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3432 2322     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct     5    Quiet 
18 Oct     5    Quiet 
19 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild recurrent activity possible 20 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Oct   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
18 Oct   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
19 Oct   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:    44000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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