[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 192/144

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Oct             16 Oct             17 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            205/156            205/156

COMMENT: Solar activity may increase around 15-16 Oct due to 
the possible return of two previously flaring regions to the 
south east limb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 2233
      Darwin               8   2222 223-
      Learmonth            8   2122 2333
      Canberra             7   1222 223-
      Hobart               5   2222 20--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   3333 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Oct     5    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Oct   154

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Oct   145    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
16 Oct   145    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 Oct   145    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    84500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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