[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 179/132

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Oct             12 Oct             13 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: ACE EPAM precursor data is ramping up giving confidence 
that in anticipated shock in the solar wind is on ots way. Estimated 
shock arrival window is from 20UT on 11 Oct to 10 UT on 12 Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1122 2223
      Darwin               5   1112 222-
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            5   1112 2223
      Canberra             6   1222 222-
      Hobart               6   1121 3---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             15   3234 4422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
12 Oct    30    Active to minor storm, chance major storm periods. 
13 Oct    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 9 October and 
is current for interval 11-13 October. A sudden impulse is expected 
in the geomagnetic field during the first half of the UT day 
on 12 oct. Active to minor storm conditions, with possible major 
storm periods during local night hours are expected following 
impulse arrival. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
13 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded and depressed conditions are expected 12-13 
Oct due to anticipated geomagnetic activity associated with M1/CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Oct   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Oct   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
12 Oct   130    Initially 15% enhanced, becoming depressed later 
                in UT day. 
13 Oct    80    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 10 October 
and is current for interval 12-13 October. Depressed and degraded 
conditions expected late on 12 Oct and on 13 Oct due to antipated 
geomagnetic storm activity from recent mass ejection. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   115000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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