[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F    1113UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 176/130

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Oct             11 Oct             12 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124

COMMENT: 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3223 3313
      Darwin              12   3323 331-
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           10   4222 3213
      Canberra            11   3223 3322
      Hobart              15   3--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 OCT : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   2333 4424     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
11 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
12 Oct    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Oct   161

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Oct   130    near predicted monthly values 
11 Oct   100    near predicted monthly values 
12 Oct   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    56000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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