[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined to 400km/sec over the UT day. 
Isolated M class flare activity expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1211 0011
      Darwin               5   2321 0011
      Townsville           2   1211 0001
      Learmonth            6   2222 2212
      Canberra             2   1211 0001
      Hobart               2   1211 0010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAY : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2122 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May    20    Initially unsettled, then active wth a chance 
                of minor storm conditions second half UT day. 
28 May    16    Unsettled to active 
29 May     6    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 24 May and 
is current for interval 27-28 May. Mildly disturbed conditions 
are possible 27/28 May due to recently repiorted CME activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected at mid 
to high latitudes, 27-28 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 May   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May   105    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
28 May   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15% 
29 May   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 24 May 
and is current for interval 27-28 May. Mild degradation expected 
27/28 May, mid to high latitudes only, mostly local night hours. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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