[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 162/116

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            155/109
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained mildly elevated (coronal hole) 
at around 500km/sec. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated mildly southward 09-17UT. A faint coronal 
mass ejection was reported at around 0550UT. This event appeared 
to be quite weak. Further (non earth directed) stronger mass ejection 
activity was observed late in the UT day, again apparently from 
behind the east limb of the sun. This may indicate an active 
region behind the limb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1121 2211
      Darwin               5   2222 1212
      Townsville           5   1321 1110
      Learmonth            9   2232 2322
      Canberra             3   1011 2211
      Hobart               3   1011 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          69   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3212 3333     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May    12    Unsettled 
27 May    20    Initially unsettled, then active wth a chance 
                of minor storm conditions second half UT day. 
28 May    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 24 May and 
is current for interval 27-28 May. Mildly-moderately disturbed conditions 
are possible 27/28 May due to recently reported CME activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degradation in HF comms quality expected at mid to high 
latitudes, local night, 27-28 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 May   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
27 May   105    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
28 May   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 24 May 
and is current for interval 27-28 May. Mild degradation expected 
27/28 May, mid to high latitudes only, mostly local night hours. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060