[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89
COMMENT: A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1417UT 
with solar wind speed increasing from 440 to 525 km/sec pre/post 
shock. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event 
beginning 27/1400UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24 hours. However, the north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic (IMF) field remained mostly northward post 
shock, reducing effectiveness.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1001 2322
      Darwin               5   1111 2322
      Townsville           2   0000 1221
      Learmonth            9   2111 3422
      Canberra             4   0000 2322
      Hobart               4   0001 2311
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAY : 
      Darwin              18   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2222 2332     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May    16    Unsettled to active 
29 May     6    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 May     7    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 24 May and 
is current for interval 27-28 May. Sudden impulse of 15nT observed 
at 1459UT on 27 May. Very mild increase in geomagnetic observed, 
probably due to northward IMF. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal   
29 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Degradation in HF comms quality expected at mid to high 
latitudes 28 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 May   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed local night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
29 May   110    Near predicted monthly values 
30 May   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 24 May 
and is current for interval 27-28 May. Lower than normal MUFs 
possible after local dawn this morning, southern region only. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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