[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 199/151

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            190/143
COMMENT: A minor C2.3 event was observed around 1905UT. There 
appeared to be a possible very faint mass ejection across the 
northern hemisphere of the solar disk around 21UT in LASCO difference 
imagery following this event. If this interpretation is correct this
event may produce a very weak shock during second half of 23 June. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3233 2202
      Darwin               9   3332 2202
      Townsville           6   2222 2202
      Learmonth           13   3333 3322
      Canberra             9   3233 2201
      Hobart               8   2233 2201
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JUN : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   4322 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun     9    Unsettled 
22 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 
23 Jun    13    Unsettled, chance of active periods. 
COMMENT: Very mild coronal hole associated geomagnetic activity 
experienced over last two days is expected to decline today. 
Mild activity possible on 23 June. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Possible mild degradation at high latitudes, local night 
hours, 21 and 23 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Jun   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 


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