[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 200/152

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            205/156            200/152

COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 650 to 450km/sec as coronal 
hole effects decline. M class flare activity may become more 
likely due to increasing magnetic complexity in a solar region 
in the north-west quadrant. Soft-xray imagery shows some brightening 
on the north-east limb, possibly indicating the arrival of a 
new sunspot group to the disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1232 2222
      Darwin               8   2232 2222
      Townsville           4   1221 0211
      Learmonth           12   2233 3333
      Canberra             7   1232 2222
      Hobart               8   1232 232-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   3344 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Jun    13    Unsettled to Active 
24 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity possible on 23 June due to recent weak CME. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Possible mild degradation at high latitudes, local night 
hours, 23 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Jun   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Some Absorption and Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible local night hours 23 June, 
southern Aus/NZ region. 

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