[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug: 165/119

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            150/105

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2101 0011
      Darwin               2   2200 0011
      Townsville           0   1000 0011
      Learmonth            9   2223 2-32
      Canberra             1   2000 0000
      Hobart               0   1100 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 AUG : 
      Darwin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             11   3222 3343     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug    40    Minor storm 
13 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
14 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 10 August and 
is current for interval 12-13 August. The geomagenetic field 
is likely to be at minor storm levels 12-13 Aug thru a combination 
of coronal hole and CME events. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 1035UT 10/08, Ended at 1435UT 10/08
 
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Fair           Fair-Poor      Fair
13 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Aug   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    80    about 10 15% below predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    60    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    90    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 10 August 
and is current for interval 12-13 August. Depressed HF propagation 
conditions likely 12-13 Aug thru a combination of coronal hole 
and CME events. 

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