[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 160/114

GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Aug             12 Aug             13 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            145/99

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
10/1030UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2211 1013
      Darwin               7   3321 1023
      Townsville           0   1000 0012
      Learmonth            8   3222 22--
      Canberra             5   3221 0013
      Hobart               3   2211 0013
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 AUG : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1322 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Aug    40    Minor storm 
13 Aug    25    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 10 August and 
is current for interval 12-13 August. The geomagenetic field 
is likely to be at minor storm levels 12-13 Aug due to a combination 
of coronal hole and CME events. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 1035UT 10/08, Ended at 1435UT 10/08

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Aug      Fair           Fair-Poor      Fair
13 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Aug   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug    60    about 20% below predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    80    10 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 10 August 
and is current for interval 12-13 August. Depressed HF propagation 
conditions likely 12-13 Aug due to a combination of coronal hole 
and CME events. 

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