[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 163/117

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1211 2112
      Darwin               4   1221 2113
      Townsville           2   0100 2112
      Learmonth            8   2222 32--
      Canberra             3   1210 2112
      Hobart               3   0210 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 AUG : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2232 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Aug    20    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 9 August and 
is current for interval 12-14 August. The geomagenetic field 
is likely be quite on 10-11 and possible active conditions on 
12 Aug. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Aug   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug   110    near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 


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