[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 160/114

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            145/99


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
12/0635UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1049UT 
on 12 Aug. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Unsettled to active 

Estimated Indices 12 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   1110 2333
      Darwin               9   121- 3333
      Townsville           4   1010 0322
      Learmonth            7   2--- ----
      Canberra             7   011- 2333
      Hobart               9   011- 2432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 AUG : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6   3012 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
14 Aug    18    active 
15 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 10 August and 
is current for interval 12-13 August. The geomagenetic field 
is likely to be at active to minor storm levels thru a combination 
of coronal hole and CME events. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
14 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Aug   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug    90    5 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    70    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
15 Aug   100    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 10 August 
and is current for interval 12-13 August. Depressed HF propagation 
conditions likely thru a combination of coronal hole and CME 
events. 

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