[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    1849UT  possible                  lower  East Pacific/
                                                   North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 182/135

GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Oct             30 Oct             31 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147

COMMENT: Proton fluxes are still slightly above background levels. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   1124 3235
      Darwin               13   1124 4336
      Townsville           15   1125 4235
      Learmonth            14   1125 3235
      Canberra             12   1134 3235
      Hobart               12   0234 3235
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 OCT : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2022 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Oct    20    Unsettled to active 
30 Oct    12    Unsettled 
31 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 27-29 October. Active conditions 
were observed from 0600 to 1600 following the arrival of two 
weaks shocks detected at 0541 and 0907UT and periods of IMF Bz 
negative between these events. Chances of further active to minor 
storm levels can be expected for the 29 OCT as the IMF Bz turned 
strongly negative at 2100 UT on 28 OCT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs expected for the 28 Oct did not eventuate 
following the arrival of two shocks 0541 and 0907UT, but are 
now likely to be depressed for the 29 OCT as IMF Bz turned negative 
after 2100UT on the 28 OCT. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Oct   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern, Southern Australian and New Zealand Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Oct   130    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
30 Oct   140    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Oct   145    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 28-30 October. Depressed conditions 
did not eventuate on 28 OCT after the arrival of two weak shocks 
detected at 0541 and 0907UT in ACE satellite data. As IMF Bz 
turned strongly negative after 2100 UT on 28 OCT, ionospheric 
conditions are expected to become depressed over the 29 OCT. 


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