[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 00
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 30 10:18:03 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors
M4/2B 0157UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 187/140
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 200/152
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 21 5433 3333
Darwin 20 5423 3333
Townsville 16 4423 2334
Learmonth 20 5423 3333
Canberra 19 5333 3334
Hobart 23 4444 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 OCT :
Darwin 44 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 2035 4335
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 12 Unsettled
31 Oct 25 active
01 Nov 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 29 October
and is current for interval 31 October to 1 November. Active
to minor storm levels were observed on the 29 OCT following a
lengthy period of negative IMF Bz starting after 2100UT on 28
OCT. Chances of further active conditions for the 31 OCT following
the anticipated arrival of a shock associated with an M4.4 flare
and dissappearing filament observed after 0130UT on the 29
OCT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No proton event in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
01 Nov Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs were observed at mid to high latitudes
on the 29 OCT following the arrival of two shocks at 0541 and
0907UT on the 28 OCT followed by a lengthy period of IMF Bz negative.
Further depressed conditions are expected for the 31 OCT to 1
NOV following the anticipated arrival of a shock on the 31 OCT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 140 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 130 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
01 Nov 140 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 29 October
and is current for interval 31 October to 1 November. Following
a geomagnetic storm triggered by the arrival of two successive
weak shocks and a lengthy period of strongly negative IMF Bz
period, ionospheric conditions were depressed by 10 to 15% at
mid to high latitudes on the 29 OCT. Further depressed conditions
are expected for the 31 OCT to 1 NOV following the arrival of an
anticipated shock on the 31 OCT.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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