[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    2056UT  possible                  lower  East Pacific/
                                                   North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 176/130

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            185/138

COMMENT: A CME was observed on the 25 Oct following a long-duration 
C4-flare at 1125UT from western limb, associated proton fluxes 
are still slightly enhanced. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region        2   1121 0002
      Darwin                1   1110 0011
      Townsville            4   1231 0012
      Learmonth             4   31-2 0001
      Canberra              1   1011 0003
      Hobart                2   1121 0003
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 OCT : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              8   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   2223 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct    25    active 
29 Oct    11    Unsettled 
30 Oct     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 27-29 October. Active, with a chance 
of minor storm periods, are expected early on 28 Oct after the 
anticipated arrival of a shock associated with a CME observed 
on 25 Oct following a C4 class flare at 1125UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are expected for the 28 Oct following 
the anticipated arrival of a shock associated with a CME observed 
on the 25 Oct after 1125 UT. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Oct   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern, Southern Australian and New Zealand Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct   130    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
29 Oct   140    near predicted monthly values 
30 Oct   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 72 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for interval 28-30 October. Enhanced HF conditions 
observed at equatorial and northern Australian latitudes during 
local night hours. Depressed conditions are expected for the 
28 Oct following the anticipated arrival of CME associated with 
C-class flare observed on the 25 Oct at 1125 UT. 


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