[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:**RED**    ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M7/-- 08/2328UT  condirmed 08/2328 09/0220   all  West Pacific
 M1/--    0314UT  possible                  lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/SF    1613UT  possible                  lower  South American/
                                                   Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 166/120

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            150/105


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   3212 3334
      Darwin               10   2222 3334
      Townsville           11   23-- ----
      Learmonth            12   3202 3433
      Canberra              9   3211 3324
      Hobart               10   3211 3334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 NOV : 
      Darwin               16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth            NA
      Canberra             45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart               41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15   2344 3313     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov    12    Quiet to unsettled 
11 Nov    35    Unsettled to active, with the chance of minor 
                to major storm periods. 
12 Nov    25    Unsettled to active, with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 10-12 November. Geomagnetic activity 
expected to increase around 11 November due to a large coronal 
hole. There is the possibility of major to severe storm levels 
for late 11 to early 12 November as the result of a recent proton 
flare. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : Proton/PCA Event Began 8 11 2000 2345UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor          
11 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor          
12 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair     
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible 11-12 Nov. Significantly 
high proton flux levels have been observed following a recent 
M7-flare which have led to high levels of absorption in the polar 
cap regions. The PCA event is still in progress and in expected 
to persist for the next couple of days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Nov   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Severe absorbtion observed throughout the day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov   115    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
12 Nov   115    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for interval 10-13 November. Degraded HF conditions 
possible 11-12 Nov. Significantly high proton flux levels have 
been observed following a recent M7-flare which have led to high 
levels of absorption in the polar cap regions. The PCA event 
is still in progress and in expected to persist for the next 
couple of days. 


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