[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 00
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 11 10:55:13 EST 2000
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 153/108
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.5E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: M1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Proton flux continues to remain above threshold levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Unsettled to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 40 3466 5333
Darwin 40 3466 5334
Townsville 44 3466 6332
Learmonth 38 3366 5334
Canberra 43 3466 6234
Hobart 65 3568 5333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 NOV :
Darwin 140 (Severe storm)
Townsville 64 (Active)
Learmonth NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3111 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 20 Unsettled to active, with the chance of minor
storm periods mostly during local night hours.
12 Nov 25 Unsettled to active, with the chance of minor
storm periods.
13 Nov 25 Unsettled to active, with the chance of minor
storm periods.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 7 November
and is current for interval 10-12 November. A shock was observed
in the solar wind at approximately 06UT and was mostly likely
the CME associated with the proton flare observed on 8 November.
A sudden impulse was observed in the geomagnetic field at 0627UT
and ranged from ~200nT for Southern Australian regions to ~100nT
for Northern Australian regions. Major storm periods followed,
however, activity appears to be abating. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase again for 11-12 November due to a large
coronal hole to possible minor storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : Proton/PCA Event Began 8 11 2000 2345UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal-fair Poor
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased to major storm levels
during local night, although the effects on HF conditions have
been only mild. Proton flux continues to remain above threshold
levels following a recent M7-flare, producing high levels of
absorption in the polar cap regions. The PCA event is still in
progress and is expected to persist for 11 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 15-30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Severe absorption has been observed for UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values for Northern Australian
regions with depressions of 15-30% for Southern
Australian regions.
12 Nov 115 Near predicted monthly values for Northern Australian
regions with depressions of 10-20% for Southern
Australian regions.
13 Nov 120 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on 8 November
and is current for interval 10-13 November. Geomagnetic activity
increased to major storm levels during local night, although
the effects on HF conditions have been only mild, with southern
Australian regions having depressions of 15-30%. Proton flux
continues to remain above threshold levels following a recent
M7-flare, producing high levels of absorption in the polar cap
regions. The PCA event is still in progress and is expected to
persist for 11 Nov.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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