[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0958UT  possible                  lower  Mid East/Indian
 M2/1F    1636UT  possible                  lower  South American/
                                                   Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 173/127

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.5E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     High               Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            160/114


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to minor storm. 

Estimated Indices 08 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       24   3555 3222
      Darwin               26   3555 322-
      Townsville           33   3555 43--
      Learmonth            26   3555 322-
      Canberra             24   2555 3223
      Hobart               20   3554 3211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 NOV : 
      Darwin               10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth            NA
      Canberra             27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             39   5566 4442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    12    Unsettled 
10 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
11 Nov    25    Unsettled to active, with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 49 was issued on 7 November 
and is current for interval 10-12 November. Geomagnetic activity 
expected to increase around 11 November due to a large coronal 
hole. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : In progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Poor-Fair
11 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions possible 11-12 Nov. 
PCA event currently in progress.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Nov   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      up to 15% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 20% to near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
10 Nov   135    near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on 8 November 
and is current for interval 10-13 November. Mildy degraded HF 
conditions possible for 11-12 Nov. PCA event currently in progress. 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060