[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 12 February 24 issued 2331 UT on 12 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (12 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
12 Feb   134    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 11/2245UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M6.4    0348UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    1309UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.4    1548UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M2.6    2118UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      15% enhanced after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1515UT 09/02, Ended at 1750UT 11/02
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 12 02 2024 0755UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      144
Feb      108
Mar      108


2. FORECAST (13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
13 Feb   130    Normal-poor      Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% enhanced
14 Feb    70    Poor-fair        Depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
15 Feb    80    Fair-normal      Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 12-Feb were 
near predicted values to 15% enhanced in the Australian region. 
The Antarctic region is currently impacted by a solar radion 
storm (S1-Minor). Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local 
night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted values 
to 15% enhanced on 13-Feb, with depressed/degraded ionospheric 
conditions possible later in the UT day. Generally depressed 
conditions are expected on 14-Feb. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au