[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 11 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 11 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (11 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
11 Feb   157    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M9.0 10/2307UT  probable   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    2245UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1515UT 09/02, Ended at 1750UT 11/02

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      144
Feb      108
Mar      108


2. FORECAST (12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
12 Feb   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced
13 Feb   115    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed    
14 Feb   130    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 
10 February and is current for 11-12 Feb. ASWFC HF Communications 
Warning 17 was issued on 11 February and is current for 11-12 
Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Feb were 
near predicted values to 35% enhanced in the Australian region. 
A polar cap absorption event has been ongoing since 09/1520 UT 
affecting high latitudes, but is expected to end on 12-Feb. Spread-F 
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted values on 12-Feb, but some enhancements 
may be observed at the start of the UT day. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed over 13-14 
Feb, with the worst depressions likely on 13-Feb due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au