[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 10 February 24 issued 2330 UT on 10 Feb 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (10 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
10 Feb   139    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.5    0051UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M3.4    0354UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M9.0    2307UT  probable   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 02 2024 1515UT and is in progress

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      144
Feb      108
Mar      108


2. FORECAST (11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
11 Feb   140    Normal           Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced
12 Feb   140    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 20% enhanced    
13 Feb   115    Fair             Near predicted monthly values 
                                 to 15% depressed   

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 
10 February and is current for 11-12 Feb. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Feb were near predicted values to 20% enhanced 
in the Australian region. Polar cap absorption began at 09/1520 
UT and has been ongoing, such that high latitude locations are 
observing increased ionospheric absorption. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values over 11-12 Feb to 20% enhanced. 
MUFs may be closer to predicted values to 15% depressed on 13-Feb 
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Degraded conditions 
are expected to continue on 11-Feb at high latitudes. Shortwave 
fadeouts are likely.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au